Farmbucks Grain Marketing Checklist

Let's get something straight right out of the gate:

You'll never "hit the top" every time. If you're selling emotionally, you'll always feel too early or too late. The goal is not perfection. It's consistent, strategic, repeatable decisions that protect your margins and cash flow over time.

This checklist is designed to slow you down, cut through the noise, and make sure you’re selling for the right reasons, not because of panic, fatigue, or coffee shop chatter.

Pin it. Screenshot it. Print it. Use it.

1. Futures Tell You When To Price

Before you even look at a local cash bid, you need to understand what the futures market is doing and what the underlying fundamentals look like.

• Are futures trending higher, lower, or chopping sideways?
• Are we making higher highs / higher lows or bleeding lower?
• What are the funds doing — building long positions, liquidating, or sitting on their hands?
• Any major macro drivers in play?
  • Weather
  • WASDE reports
  • Geopolitics & trade tensions/war
  • Energy & policy
  • Interest rates & currency flows

Remember:

• Futures reflect global supply & demand + fund money
• They do not reflect your local elevator's needs
• Think of Futures as the weather forecast and Basis as the actual temperature outside your door.

2. Basis Tells You Where and How to Price.

This is where the real story lives. What are buyers really saying?

• Is basis strengthening or weakening locally?
• Are exporters buying hand-to-mouth or filling programs?
• Are nearby delivery bids stronger than deferred?
• Are crushers, feedlots, or exporters suddenly aggressive?
• Any special programs, premiums, or push bids showing up?

Basis reflects real demand, logistics, and capacity. This is critical:

Key truths:

• Strong basis = real demand
• Weak basis = oversupply or logistical bottlenecks
• Improving basis = buyers are nervous
• Falling basis = buyers are comfortable

Remember This: Futures tell you when to price. Basis tells you where and how. If you only watch one or the other, you’re flying blind.

3. Currency Check (Don’t Skip This)

Photo: enjoynz/iStock

I can’t stress this enough:

• Is the CAD strengthening or weakening vs USD?

The loonie can quietly steal money out of your pocket or hand you free money without futures moving at all (**only if the buyers decide to pass it on)

This is one of the most underestimated drivers in Canadian grain marketing, and one of the easiest to monitor.

4. Logistics & Movement Reality

Grain doesn’t move on hope. It moves on steel, water, and weather.

• Are railways moving grain or choking?
• Are there low water issues, floods, or freeze-ups coming?
• Is the export system flowing or plugged?
• Are ports backed up?

This matters because:

• Tight logistics = weaker basis
• Smooth logistics = stronger basis
• Disruptions = volatility & surprises

Logistics is the hidden hand in basis movement.

Photo: 4FR/iStock

5. Quality & Grade Risk

Let's be honest, this is where a lot of money gets left on the table.

• What grade is sitting on your bins? Is this likely to improve or deteriorate with time?
• Is there risk of downgrading in the bin?
• Are protein, falling number, oil content, or spec premiums widening or shrinking?
• What is the rest of the world growing in terms of quality?

If you have marginal falling number, tight protein, or tough grain, then time is not your friend. Sometimes the best marketing decision is not the highest price, it’s the lowest risk.

6. Policy & Trade Wildcards

This is the stuff no model can predict, and yet it moves markets the fastest.

• Any biofuel mandates, EPA headlines, or blending changes coming?
• Any trade talks, tariffs, or sanctions?
• Any political noise from the U.S., China, or Russia?

Right now China remains a massive wildcard for trade around the world. Any headline can swing markets hard and fast. And, like it or not, Trump quotes or policy changes move markets faster than the weather these days.

Ignoring politics does not protect you from it.

7. Seasonality Reality Check

Seasonals are not rules. They are tendencies.

• Am I fighting harvest pressure?
• Am I in post-harvest fatigue mode?
• Are buyers getting aggressive because farmers aren't selling?
• Is this a "sell some" window?

Important reality is — with year-ends behind many operations, cash needs rising, and another crop coming, farmers always come back to the market. Buyers know this. They wait for it. They plan for it.

Seasonality guides, but it does not guarantee.

8. Farm Cash Flow & Storage

Photo: fotokostic/iStock

This is where marketing meets real life.

• What grain needs to move?
• What grain can wait?
• What is my real cost of carry?
• Do I need cash or just want a better price?

Let’s talk numbers. Know your cost of carry. At 4.5% interest:

• $7.50 wheat = ~3¢/month carry → With bids holding flat, not worth holding.
• $13.00 canola = ~5¢/month carry → if a 4-month hold means > 20¢. Yes, that makes sense to sell into the deferred month.

And remember — storage costs money, risk increases over time, quality can slip, and opportunity can disappear.

9. Emotional Check (This One Matters More Than You Think)

Be honest with yourself:

• Am I selling out of fear?
• Am I holding out for hope?
• Am I anchored to an old high price?
• Am I exhausted and just want it gone?
• Am I trying to be perfect instead of profitable?

Markets are emotional machines. They are designed to scare you out at the bottom, and lure you in at the top.

Most bad marketing decisions are not analytical, they are emotional.

10. Execution – Make the Sale

Now, and only now, once you examine it all, do you execute.

• Am I pricing a portion, not the whole crop?
• Am I selling into futures strength or basis strength?
• Am I following a plan, not Twitter, not headlines, not coffee shop noise?
• Have I left myself room to adjust?

Key rules:

• You do not need to sell everything at once
• You do not need to pick the top
• You do not need to be right, you need to be consistent

Farmbucks Bottom Line

Let’s bring this home.

• Have a plan.
• Know your numbers & break-evens.
• Pre-price a portion and hedge your bets.
• Use targets.
• Spread sales over time.
• Don't let emotion, Twitter, or headlines drive decisions.
• Don't turn a blind eye to ugly markets, that’s where opportunity is built.
• Keep learning. Keep adapting. Use Farmbucks to help. 😉

This checklist is not about calling tops. It’s about protecting your business, your cash flow, and your sanity. And in markets like these, that’s everything.