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The International Grains Council (IGC) trimmed its forecast for 2024-25 global wheat and corn production.
Details: zurl.co/Ozh6 pic.x.com/lr1u4ngc0o

Senate Ag Chair Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) is pushing to finalize a full five-year farm bill rather than pursue an ad hoc emergency assistance package for farmers, despite pressure from commodity groups and some lawmakers.

Stabenow believes it’s “too early” for emergency relief… x.com/i/web/status/1…

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“Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and elevated input costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 13th straight month,” say Dr. Ernie Goss, Creighton University, who conducts the survey.

zurl.co/MQEx pic.x.com/wkteazxdp5

The winter wheat market bulls have faded this week amid fresh chart-based selling pressure from the speculators as technical postures have deteriorated.

Solid losses in the corn futures market today also spilled over into selling pressure in the wheat futures.

🇺🇸CPC's October weather outlook doesn't suggest anything threatening for the U.S. corn & soybean harvest, but the dry bias in the Southern Plains is probably not what winter wheat growers want to see, especially in areas that have missed out on recent moisture. pic.x.com/kniyoupzml

China has not slowed purchases in recent weeks despite heightening tensions between both the E.U. & Canada.

An optimist might view this as healthy for the U.S. & Chinese trade relationship. As China ramps up tensions with other countries, it could drive additional buying to… x.com/i/web/status/1…

#oatt x.com/fbermingham/st…

Fundamentally, Wednesday afternoon’s aggressive interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve means lower borrowing costs for consumers in the coming months, suggesting better demand for beef at the meat counter.

December cotton futures surged to a fresh for-the-move high today, negating losses from the past couple of days.

Cotton prices were supported by a surging equity market today that saw the S&P 500 breaking record highs. Higher crude oil futures were also supportive for cotton… x.com/i/web/status/1…

Cattle, dairy and equities enjoyed the Fed rate cut it seemed on Thursday while grains were under pressure. We discuss the market action and get some great insight from Bryan Doherty with @TotalFarmMktg on today's program! #cattle #agtwitter #FOMC

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Brazil’s foreign trade chamber raised the quota for wheat imports through the end of the year to avoid potential shortages.
The announcement didn’t specify the amount of the quota increase.

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The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for broad continuation or expansion of drought for most winter wheat areas.
zurl.co/blVE pic.x.com/wrtyp6cltq

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🇦🇷The Parana River in South America is near record low levels, hampering grain and oilseed exports from #Argentina. Ships are taking on less cargo, pushing up costs and transport times.
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🇺🇸77% of the Midwestern U.S. is abnormally dry as of this week, the most in 6+ months. 100% of the I-states are now abnormally dry, up from Iowa-65%, Illinois-77%, Indiana-92% a week ago.
Some 59% of Ohio is in severe or worse drought, by far the most in records back to 2000. pic.x.com/25uskbpwcm

India has announced another #urea purchase tender.

Egypt and Middle East producers selling higher.

Seems the supply tightness theory is coming true faster than expected.

Soybean sales notably topped pre-report expectations for the week ended Sept. 12, while wheat sales were short of analysts’ pre-report range.

zurl.co/Uk51 pic.x.com/70jmowojek

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Russian winter planting is lagging significantly: only 6.3 mln ha planted vs. 7.2 mln ha in 2023.|

Biggest concern: the Volga Valley at 3.75 mln ha vs. 4.2 mln ha last year, where a year-on-year decline seems likely. Other regions still have more time to plant.

#Wheat usually… x.com/i/web/status/1… pic.x.com/lx3c3bwwgt

In Thursday's First Thing Today report:
• Port strike will have bigger impact for livestock/meat
• Ukraine's corn exports could be halved in 2024-25
• 4 Russian grain regions declare state of emergency
• House rejects Speaker's temporary spending plan
•… x.com/i/web/status/1… pic.x.com/aklfsv0gaq

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Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday sharply lowered its forecast of French soft #wheat exports outside the European Union in 2024/25 to 4.0 million metric tons from an initial projection of 7.5 million in July, now 61% below last season's level - Reuters

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Grain ships loaded with soybeans and corn at Argentina’s major inland river ports around Rosario are hauling less cargo as water levels drop to near record lows due to a major drought upstream in Brazil.

🇺🇸Net export sales of U.S. #soybeans last week beat all expectations with #China leading the way (974kt). #Corn sales were moderate (Mexico 281kt, unknown 183kt, Japan 122kt), but #wheat sales were a 2+ month low. The huge #soyoil sales (MY high) stemmed from late reporting. pic.x.com/bp8u5eqzfe

The disparity in U.S. & Brazil ethanol trade policies is a major topic frustrating U.S. corn & ethanol producers, with Brazil maintaining protective tariffs while the U.S. allows tariff-free access for Brazilian ethanol.
zurl.co/LErr pic.x.com/unbybcij6d

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SovEcon Raises Russian #Wheat Production Forecast for 2024

Free note: blog.sizov.report/sovecon-raises…

#oatt #russia #blacksea pic.x.com/qrhcfdsfxi

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So it was a U-turn...is Matif #wheat going to revisit the contract's low? I doubt but the chart looks bearish. pic.x.com/rwn8ugyw43 x.com/sizov_andre/st…

It looks like funds are back to their old game...

#wheat #oatt pic.x.com/te8zwoubvi

Several Iowa government officials, including Governor Kim Reynolds & officials from the Iowa Soybean Association, U.S. Soybean Export Council & U.S. Grains Council, are in India this week.

That prompted us to look at the restrictions India places on imports of U.S. soy… x.com/i/web/status/1… pic.x.com/x7klqwz8sl

The Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut in 4 years, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5%.

Key takeaways from the Fed’s decision: zurl.co/BFYi pic.x.com/rb8lwfask2

Analysts expect USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report on Friday afternoon to show the large feedlot (1,000-plus head) inventory up 0.9% from year-ago at 11.194 million head.

After a 5.8% jump in placements during July, the report is expected to show a 1.0% decline in the number of… x.com/i/web/status/1…

Do you want to better understand covered calls & how they can help your marketing plan?

Download our free guide to covered calls: zurl.co/IKjH pic.x.com/qu1fvmy4ga

This week’s early cash market activity suggests fed cattle prices will rise again this week.

The fact that last week’s average of $182.11 came in 93 cents above the week-prior almost surely played a significant role in Tuesday’s strong futures advance, as well as the firmness… x.com/i/web/status/1…

USDA will release its weekly Export Sales Report early Thursday morning, with analysts expecting net sales to have ranged from 300,000 to 650,000 MT for the week ended Sept. 12.
#wheat

Random Wednesday thoughts.

April 14, 2023: The last daily export sale announcement of U.S. #corn to #China that was NOT a cancellation - 136,000 tonnes for delivery in 2023/24.

May 17, 2023: The last daily U.S. corn sale to China - cancellation of 272,000 tonnes for 2022/23.

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The Fed will start cutting interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting this afternoon, pivoting to easing monetary policy.

The main question is whether the Fed starts with a 25-basis-point cut or opts for a bigger reduction – and the path it intends to take… x.com/i/web/status/1…

Is this already season 3 of the Bollywood saga: 'India to Start Importing #Wheat Soon'? 📉 The ratings are definitely dropping...

#oatt x.com/lockedlimit/st…

25 bps = bearish ags
50 bps = bullish?
thoughts?

#oatt #macro x.com/stevehouf/stat…

My interview with @DanteRofi for Argentina's La Nacion:
We're still bullish on #wheat, expecting an upside of +$1/bu or more. However, U.S. farmers, as well as those in Romania and Bulgaria, still need to sell more. It will take time for the market to shift back to fundamentals.… x.com/i/web/status/1…

My interview with @DanteRofi for Argentina's La Nacion:
We're still bullish on #wheat, expecting an upside of +$1/bu or more. However, U.S. farmers, as well as those in Romania and Bulgaria, still need to sell more. It will take time for the market to shift back to fundamentals.… x.com/i/web/status/1… pic.x.com/hnvry8ysae

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Weather models continue to trend wetter for Russia's winter #wheat regions. Warmer conditions could also give crops more time to develop before winter sets in. 🌧️🌾

Find more insights in our sizov.report comments and daily updates.

#OATT #blacksea #agwx pic.x.com/1pnjyb1eqe

Interesting spike in #soybeans overnight... makes you wonder if sellers are eyeing that 50DMA.

#oatt pic.x.com/5evbw3au4d

France’s ag ministry slashed the country’s 2024-25 soft wheat export forecast outside the EU by 3.5 MMT to 4 MMT, which would be 61% below last year due to the smallest crop since 1986.

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Ukraine’s exportable grain surplus is seen at 43.2 MMT for 2024-25, Ukrainian state news agency Ukrinform quoted the ag minister as saying.

That would be down 7.5 MMT (14.8%) from 2023-24.

🇨🇳So far in 2024, #China has imported more #soybeans, #wheat, barley, sorghum & sugar versus the same period in 2023. #Corn & pork arrivals are lower.
Soy imports are on a record pace so far, bolstered by an all-time monthly record in August. pic.x.com/wbx3nuv0gu

Black Sea consulting firm SovEcon cut its 2024 Russian grain production forecast by 4 MMT to 124.4 MMT.
As we reported yesterday, SovEcon raised its Russian wheat crop forecast by 400,000 MT to 82.9 MMT.

SovEcon expects Russia to export 48.1 MMT of wheat in 2024-25, down from… x.com/i/web/status/1…

🇫🇷Disrupted by heavy rains, just 41% of #France's 2024 soft #wheat harvest met the key protein standard, below a 5yr avg of 58%. Only 28% of the crop had test weights above the standard threshold (75% is avg).

France's non-EU 24/25 wheat exports are now set to fall 61% YOY. pic.x.com/bltfco8ma4

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Nitrogen/phosphate fertilizer market outlooks remain bullish in my POV based on tight supplies and expected demand.

However, both come with a big "what if" scenario.

- What if Chinese urea exports surge in Q4
- What if Chinese phosphate exports surge in Q4

So yeah...China

#Soybeans look ugly...anyone has figured out what that night spike was about? ("#Cofco buying all US beans at night" again?)

#oatt #china pic.x.com/i8rgrtib53 x.com/sizov_andre/st…

The Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the “Fuels of the Future” bill last week, which could increase soybean crushing for biodiesel production.

Another change proposed by the bill is an increase in the blending of ethanol into gasoline... zurl.co/tZZa pic.x.com/bkdsmdts45

Wonder when Romania and Bulgaria will run out of cheap #wheat. In my view, CVB supply is the biggest bearish factor at the moment...

Any comments from local traders?

#oatt x.com/AtriaBrokers/s…

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25! x.com/kevrgordon/sta…

🇨🇳#China's #corn imports have eased in recent months, coinciding with lighter shipments out of #Brazil. China has not opted to fill the gap with US imports, which trailed off after China approved Brazilian corn for import in late 2022. pic.x.com/bcpadhknrh

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Ethanol production averaged 1.049 million barrels per day (bpd) during the week ended Sept. 13, down 31,000 bpd (2.9%) from the previous week but up 69,000 bpd (7.0%) from last year.

Ethanol increased 71,000 barrels to 23.785 million barrels.

🇧🇷Recent GFS model runs have suggested rain chances starting at month's end for northern Mato Grosso, #Brazil, where the planting of #soybeans is slowed due to dryness. Need to eye the next several runs to make sure the rain timing/amounts are maintained. pic.x.com/qderdaf1ht

This afternoon’s more aggressive 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve modestly lifted soybeans in late trading and should be friendly for the soy complex in the near term, possibly inviting better speculator buying interest.

What does the 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve mean for commodities, livestock, currencies and more? We dive into that topic and talk with Mike Zuzolo (@ZEUSHOYO) from Global Commodity Analytics on today's show. #FOMC #FedRate #AgNews

youtube.com/watch?v=VMicqq…

Also, we talk about sustainability with Jamie Leifker, President at Truterra at the end of today's program.

youtube.com/watch?v=rj3B-6…

U.S. retailers plan to hire around 520,000 seasonal workers for the upcoming holiday season, down from 564,200 in 2023, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas provided to Reuters.

If the forecast holds, this would be the lowest seasonal hiring since 2022 & the 2nd… x.com/i/web/status/1…

Four years of the #CropWatch24 #soybeans in southeast Illinois. All were strong crops. The best yields came in 2021 followed by 2022 & 2023 (in that order).
At one point, 2024 was on track to beat 2021. Recent dryness may have nixed that, but this year should still be very good. pic.x.com/5jd2wrfygx

The Brazilian Chamber of Deputies approved the “Fuels of the Future” bill last week, which could increase soybean crushing for biodiesel production according to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove).
zurl.co/PgCK pic.x.com/zrur944hsg

Barge traffic to Bolivian and Brazilian ports on the Paraguay River has almost ground to a halt due to low water levels north of Paraguay’s capital Asuncion, said Raul Valdez, chairman of shipping trade group CAFyM.

Paraguay relies on rivers to transport 80% of its agricultural… x.com/i/web/status/1…

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Conab released 2024-25 projections of a 166.28 MMT soybean crop, which would be up 12.82% from last year if realized.

The corn futures market continues to languish in a sideways and choppy trading range that has been in place since July.
The key outside markets were a mixed bag for corn today as higher crude oil prices were a positive but a firmer U.S. dollar index was a negative.

Live cattle futures surged today, supported by continued strength in the cash market.

Cash cattle trade got an unexpected early start in the northern market, with 986 head trading hands in Iowa at $183.48. That is up 66¢ from last week’s average for the area & $1.88 above the… x.com/i/web/status/1…

🇦🇷#Argentina's corn yields grew steadily late last century, though they began to fluctuate more noticeably about 20 years ago. It has been a few years since Argentina's #corn yields have approached full potential, struggling particularly in the last 3 years (drought, pests). pic.x.com/yrxgqthims

Markets were quiet in grains on Tuesday with livestock the star of the show. We discuss the overall picture and if funds are moving to the sidelines or not with Jim McCormick (@jpmccormick3) from @AgMarket_Net on today's program. #agnews #markets

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SovEcon raised its forecast for Russia’s 2024 wheat crop to 82.9 MMT, up from 82.5 MMT, citing higher-than-expected yields.

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The lean hog futures market bulls are out of the gate strong so far this week, which suggests some more follow-through technical buying interest from the speculators will occur in the near term.
October futures’ discount to the CME cash hog index also likely spurred some… x.com/i/web/status/1…

$DXY keeps bouncing from ~100.5...can it go even lower? Ags/commodities want to know...

#oatt #oott pic.x.com/xhvmnvjyxv

🇺🇦#Ukraine planted 6.9% of its 2025 winter grain area as of Sept. 16, below the year-ago pace (11.8% by Sept. 19, 2023). Drought is limiting planting activity and it could eventually cut area, particularly for rapeseed. pic.x.com/cxdxcpwdxr

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Brazil’s “Fuels of the Future” bill could increase the soybean crushing for biodiesel production to 55.8 MMT in 2025, up from the current 31 MMT forecast for 2024, according to data from the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove).

2,800 people (!) injured, eight dead...crude +2% pic.x.com/zibduskkbu

"As always, when financial conditions loosen, demand comes roaring back, and the market tends to catch everyone offside. This time is likely no different – I expect commodities to start doing well again soon, even as the crowd stays laser-focused on the negatives."

$dxy #oatt… x.com/i/web/status/1… x.com/BittelJulien/s…

Members of the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) crushed 158.0 million bu. of soybeans during August, well shy of the 171.3 million bu. analysts expected and the lowest monthly figure since September 2021.

zurl.co/c8fx pic.x.com/6v82tkuhw1

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Aging well so far...
Wonder where will the sell-off in Matif #wheat stop pic.x.com/rud8ujeqrz x.com/sizov_andre/st…

Are you a grain cart driver and are already getting yelled at this early in harvest.

Please remember, harvest could not happen without you and your hard work...BUT IT WOULD GO A LOT BETTER IF YOU WOULD HURRY THE HELL UP!!!!