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Today’s episode comes right after the May #WASDE reports. Join us for @PearsonCattle’s last day as our guest host to recap the report with @DuWayneBosse from @boltmarketing1 and more! #agtwitter

markettalkag.com/2024/05/10/fri…

Help us thank @PearsonCattle for filling in for @jesseallenag this week! We enjoyed having him on the show and for all the great conversation had on this busy week.

Looking at the last 5 weather headlines from the LSEG research team (as of Friday PM), the weather market could stay interesting in the coming weeks/months with continued S. Brazil flooding & dry center-west Brazil, and hot & dry threats to both USA & Black Sea growing regions.

May 10: Most-active CBOT #corn futures notch their highest settle of 2024 ($4.69-3/4 per bushel) as USDA pegs corn supplies below expectations.
Most-active corn had set a yearly high ($4.72) on Tuesday, though Dec corn has yet to return to its 2024 high ($5.02-1/4 set Jan. 2).

❌Speculators cover short bets
✅Speculators set short bets on FIRE in the week ended May 7 across U.S. grain & oilseed futures & options.

This was money managers' biggest week of collective net buying since July 2017.

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🇧🇷StoneX sees Rio Grande do Sul in southern #Brazil losing 3 million tonnes of #soybeans following the deadly floods.

USDA on Friday reduced its Brazilian soy crop estimate to 154 mmt from 155 mmt forecast in April.

Compared with demand, world #wheat supplies among major exporting countries are seen hitting 17-year lows in 2024/25. Stocks-to-use is pegged at 13.5%, near all-time lows.

Stocks-to-use in 2023/24 (14.7%) sits at a 16-year low but nearly identical to 2020/21.

Pay attention to where we close in #corn, #soybeans & #wheat today. There's nothing bullish about today's USDA numbers, but the market was braced for worse. Trade also liked USDA's 88 mmt Russia wheat estimate, thinking that it confirms losses there. #oatt

Six months ago I started preparing our customers for the funds to exit short positions in grains by 2nd or 3rd qtr as reinflation expectations returned. That has happened, exiting us from the "commodity deflation" mantra of the past two years. #oatt

Today's response to the crop report is further evidence of the change in mindset toward commodities. Doesn't mean prices can't fall, but rising inflation expectations historically mean that the markets manage supply and demand at higher prices. Don't get greedy though. Still need… x.com/i/web/status/1…

Today's consumer sentiment index survey results showed that consumer expectations for longer-term inflation rose to 3.5% this month, up from 3.2% last month. Inflation expectations are rising. #oatt

In addition to USDA data, #China-U.S. trade relations are also in the news spotlight Friday as Biden is set to announce on Tuesday new tariffs on Chinese goods incl. EVs, solar & medical supplies. These tariffs will be on top of existing Trump-era ones.
yahoo.com/news/us-set-im…

Hear #WASDE recap from Arlan Suderman (@ArlanFF101) from StoneX at the link below!

markettalk.libsyn.com/midday-comment…

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Still time to register for today's webinar that will be packed with USDA and weather analysis. #corn #soybeans #wheat #oatt stonex.cventevents.com/event/200327ce…

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🇺🇸U.S. farmers in 2024 are set to harvest a smaller #corn crop than in 2023, but output of #soybeans may rise significantly. This is mostly due to a year-on-year acreage shift from corn to soybeans.

🇺🇸The 2024 U.S. #wheat harvest is seen slightly smaller than analysts thought but above last year's crop. Winter wheat output is up 2% year-on-year, HRW up 17%, SRW down 23%, white winter up 16%. The SRW number in particular was well below the average trade guess.

WASDE bullish #wheat and (surprise) #corn

#oatt

tks @jpmccormick3

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Immediate report reaction: 2024/25 US/global corn supply is SIGNIFICANTLY less bearish than the market has braced for in recent months. Soybeans on the other hand...... 😬😬 Also, the wheat outlook isn't bearish with world stocks at multi-year lows. Would one call it bullish?

On Friday, @USDA released the May WASDE report that could be construed as bearish for soybeans and neutral for corn and wheat.

markettalkag.com/2024/05/10/upc…

2024/25 world #corn & #wheat ending stock estimates land well below the average trade guess, but #soybeans landed very far above. RU+UA wheat crop seen down 5% YOY, exports down 7%. China corn imports seen unch from 23/24 at 23 mmt. China soy imports at 109 mmt vs 105 in 23/24.

Closing out the week with pimping the newsletter!!

If interested, I go a lot deeper into price directions, market stories, outlooks, etc. in the farmer fertilizer newsletter. Tried to keep it as cheap as I could without getting in trouble!!

subscribe.stonex.com/farmer-fertili…

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Below 90 mmt already
(But don't forget about historically high #wheat stocks, USDA carryout estimates are very misleading)

#russia #sizovreport x.com/cmdtySal/statu…

🇨🇳#China on Friday placed 2024/25 import estimates for #corn, #soybeans & #cotton well below 2023/24 levels on a large corn crop & reduced pig production capacity. 2024/25 estimates are (vs 23/24):
Corn 13 mmt (19.5 mmt)
Soy 94.6 mmt (96.1 mmt)
Cotton 2 mmt (2.8 mmt)

USDA pegged 2024-25 #corn stocks at 2.102 billion, #soybeans at 445 million, and #wheat at 766 million bushels. Soybeans above expectations modestly, while corn and wheat below. #oatt

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🇦🇷🇧🇷USDA trims 2023/24 outlooks for #Brazil & #Argentina #corn and Brazil #soybeans.

Record Brazilian soy crop seen in 2024/25, though Argy expectations are more modest.

Argentine #corn production dn 2 mmt to 53 mmt, #soybeans unchanged at 50 mmt. Brazil #corn dn 2 mmt at 122 mmt, #soybeans dn 1 mmt to 154 mmt. #oatt

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US winter #wheat production at 1.858 billion bushels, 30 million bushels below trade expectations. #oatt

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Old-crop #corn exports and ethanol both raised 50 million bushels as expected. #oatt

🇺🇸U.S. 2023/24 ending stocks come in at or below trade expectations, though 2024/25 #corn is below and #soybeans above. The projected year-on-year build in U.S. corn stocks is MUCH smaller than previously feared.

Still no increase in old-crop #soybean crush, but new crop jumps 125 million bushels #oatt

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Old-crop #wheat exports rise by 10 million bushels. #oatt

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All trade estimates for USDA's supply & demand reports due Friday at 11am CT. This is our first look at 2024/25, but there is still some interest in 2023/24, particularly in South America where weather/pests have stressed crops. US 2024/25 wheat crop will also be featured.

Another gap up in Matif #wheat on Russian frosts last night (and CBOT rallied 20 cents). Overreaction or not? Farmers I spoke to are indeed concerned after the second cold night in a row...

Our take is in sizov.report update today.

#oatt #agwx #blacksea

#farmer margins are looking pretty skinny this year. Next year not much better.

Time to get back to basics. At the core, farming is no more than input and output values.

Inputs - fert, chem, seed, etc.
Outputs - grain

The lower the value/ratio between the two, the better.

U.S. space weather forecasters have issued the first severe geomagnetic storm watch since 2005 after several strong solar flares this week. Impacts could start midday Friday and go thru Sunday. This could cause some power problems but will also offer aurora views to the lower US.

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Where’s #corn and #soybeans reaction?

Reuters: U.S. President Joe Biden is set to announce new China tariffs next week targeting strategic sectors
…
Specific sectors were set to include electric vehicles, batteries and solar equipment
…
The measures could invite retaliation… x.com/i/web/status/1…

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Smoking bad
Physics class good

(Something to show to your kids) x.com/humansnocontex…

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Join us for today's episode, one day ahead of the WASDE reports with @JLinvilleFert, VP of Fertilizer with @StoneX_Official and Bryan Doherty from @TotalFarmMktg. #agtwitter #markets

youtube.com/channel/UCQcS2…

🇺🇸U.S. exporters have sold an unusually small volume of #soybeans for the upcoming marketing year, the smallest for the date since 2005. Relative to (likely) expectations, it's probably among the smallest in decades. Sales explicitly to #China = 0.

Another slow day on the #fertilizer markets...and I'm loving it! After the last few years, some quiet periods are nice.

Only thing that would be better (from a farmer/retailer) POV would be lower prices!!!!

🤔🤔🤔 x.com/kannbwx/status…

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🇦🇷Port & soy processing workers around #Argentina's Rosario hub are striking Thursday to protest harsh austerity measures implemented by President Milei. Rumors of this strike circulated last week and may have helped boost #soymeal futures even after the prior 2-day strike ended.

French Twitter reveals the truth!

#wheat #agwx #TruthMatters

for some guys insisting on 6.5 zwn today....

#wheat #agwx x.com/CraigSolberg/s…

Reuters: #China approved the first gene-edited disease-resistant #wheat

We could see more of China's GE wheat varieties in the future, as it developed another variety with longer and heavier kernels and supposedly high yields earlier this year.

Wonder if one day Chinese… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

🇷🇺TASS quoting #Russia's ag ministry as saying "the killed crops will be replanted, all necessary resources are available for this" following emergency declarations in three grain regions over cold weather.

Is winter #wheat involved? Bit too late to replant that I'd guess...

They need to add a button to eject the door... x.com/tunguz/status/…

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Indicative of the continued tensions between China & the West. #oatt x.com/SkyNews/status…

#Wheat is back to trading frost and moisture stress in Russia, while #corn and #soybeans trade fears that USDA WASDE will grow stocks in its 2024-25 balance sheets tomorrow. #oatt

#Wheat market has misread last night's cold snap in Russia...and now it realizes that x.com/ArlanFF101/sta…

#Wheat market has misread last night's cold snap in Russia...and now it's realizing that x.com/ArlanFF101/sta…

The #wheat market has misread last night's cold snap in Russia...and now it's realizing that x.com/ArlanFF101/sta…

A few central Russian regions declared a state of emergency (SE) because of frosts.... To put that into perspective: there are 100+ events like that annually. Farmers need SE to get something from insurers.

#agwx #wheat x.com/sizov_andre/st…

Marketing year to date #corn export sales exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 26 million bushels, up from 9 million the previous week. #oatt

Marketing year to date grain sorghum export sales exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 6 million bushels, down from 7 million the previous week. #oatt

Marketing year to date #soybean export sales fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 61 million bushels, versus being short by 66 million the previous week. #oatt

#corn #oatt x.com/ScottIrwinUI/s…

#corn #oatt x.com/ScottIrwinUI/s…

#corn #oatt x.com/ScottIrwinUI/s…

"Unknown destinations" was the featured buyer of US #soybeans in the week ending May 2 at a net 6.2 million bushels, with China listed at just 0.7 million. #oatt

Mexico was the featured buyer of US #wheat in the week ending May 2 at a net 0.2 million bushels of old-crop and 4.5 million bushels of new-crop. #oatt

🇺🇸Usual suspects were buying U.S. #corn last week, but sales of new-crop #soybeans remain dreadful (19-year low for the date). Jamaica & Canada bought #soyoil and China bought #cotton. Mexico & Panama were top buyers of new-crop #wheat.

China was the featured buyer of US grain sorghum in the week ending May 2 at a net 5 million bushels, with roughly half of that a shift out of previous purchases by "unknown destinations." #oatt

USDA confirms the sale of 132,080 tonnes of U.S. #corn to Mexico. 61kt is for 2023/24 delivery and 71kt is for 2024/25.

For #wheat bull out there: a reminder that at this stage, light frosts (0/-1C) don't necessarily mean problems for the plants. Yes, the Center will have more cold temps next night as well.

A quick note has been posted for the clients: sizov.report/reports/22519/

#oatt #agwx

State of emergency has been declared in the Voronezh, Lipetsk, and Tambov regions due to frosts...

#wheat #agwx x.com/sovecon/status…

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🌽2014 and 2024: twinning?

In ways, yes. New-crop CBOT #corn prices have been very similar between the two years and there are some overlapping fundamental themes.

But these two charts weaken the argument. Fund positioning and price trends since Jan. 1 have been opposite.

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Export sales for the week ending May 2 (mln bu): #corn 35 old- & 1.9 new-crop; grain sorghum 2.4, #soybeans 15.8 old- & 0.2 new-crop; #wheat 1.5 old- & 14.9 new-crop #oatt

Mexico was the featured buyer of US #corn in the week ending May 2 at a net 7.6 million bushels, with China buying one cargo of 2.7 million bushels #oatt

🇨🇳#China's April imports of #soybeans were a record for the month at 8.57 million tonnes, up 18% from the same month last year. Marketing YTD (Oct-Apr) imports of around 50 mmt is pretty average in historical context.

🇦🇷Rosario grains exchange cuts #Argentina's #corn harvest to 47.5 mmt from 50.5 mmt a month ago on leafhopper damage. Rosario had previously pegged the crop at 57 mmt.

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