Fall has arrived.
(New goals. New deals.)
Set new goals and kick things up a notch now that crop is in the bin. First thing’s first though, I suggest sending out as many samples as possible to know what you have to market. Next, run your numbers and see what makes sense for you and your farm. Where is your break-even? Where do you stand today? What kind of risk are you comfortable with? What price are you aiming for? Then zoom into your crops on Farmbucks and see who may be your best bet to achieve those goals.
Seems like every single line company out there has a deal on this and a deal on that. Luckily its easy to spot through the Farmbucks app which continues to update continuously with both hot and cold prices – but hey, it’s all there and I know what my options are at all times. It sure helps at a time like this because my brain is a bit frazzled post-harvest. Thank goodness for algorithms behind the scenes doing my dirty work!
Weekly Market Recap:
After a down day Monday, (traders were worried about rumors that a large Chinese real estate company called Evergrande could default on its loans; next day it was viewed as a non-impact to the financial market). Markets then rebounded to end the week higher.
Next Thursday, Sept. 30, the USDA will release its small grains report and this could have an impact on barley, oat and wheat markets.
Deals of the week: $8.75/bu barley,
$7.00+/bu oats, $11.50/bu 1CWRS13.5
Canola: Futures made some nice gains this week but is still trading in a sideways pattern. It will break out of this range eventually but if it’s to the upside or downside is anyone’s guess. Right now palm oil is showing lots of strength and soybean oil is following it higher even though rumours swirled about the U.S. cutting its biofuel blending requirements. This has yet to be formally announced.
Soybeans futures are still bouncing around. Waiting for more signals of which way it truly wants to go.
Wheat: Wheat made a few decent gains this week on claims of Russia bringing back an export quota in January and start to ration its supplies. I've read that world milling wheat supplies are at its lowest levels in eight years.
Seeing quite a few specials show up this week as futures moved higher. CWRS bids are hitting $11.50/bu and there are merchants suggesting that farmers enter $12/bu targets. CPS opportunities are back to $10.25/bu+.
Barley: Barley bids are hot, particularly today. It appears certain elevators are back in the market with aggressive bids reaching $8.75/bu for immediate movement. This may be in part by China's demand for barley this October to January.
Peas: Once again, pea bids haven't changed much, and are just lingering in the background with some small downward revisions here and there. China's imports have slowed now as they have built up their supplies for the time being.
Oats: Oat futures jumped way up again this week. The oat market is very interesting in that bids are already reaching beyond $7/bu and we are at the peak of harvest pressure. Unlike other commodities, oats cannot be as easily replaced by users. Oat milk wouldn't be oat milk without oats! And consumers want more oat products! The oat crop this year is terribly small. Many acres were abandoned or cut for feed and the oats that did make it, are running light. Stay tuned to see how this all plays out.
Around the farm: We wrapped up what I would call the bulk of harvest yesterday! Whoop whoop! This week was not one without decisions or challenges though as I had decided to leave out areas of green, gross, second growth canola. Enough was enough, I pulled out my sprayer and went to desiccate these trouble areas. So now my combines are sitting idle for a couple of weeks hoping these green plants will die off and I can get the little bit of canola that grew in these areas! In the meantime, we are back to picking rocks, cleaning fencelines and other make-work projects. Good thing I have three kids to help out! The weather looks abnormally warm for the coming two weeks so we intend to take full advantage!
I hope you all have a great weekend and enjoy the sights of leaves turning and falling to the ground as autumn begins!