Don't get tricked.
(Is it really a good deal?)
Trick or treat?! Trick! ... says nobody ever! Just like Halloween, don’t be fooled. Seems like there are “specials” all the time, but how do you even begin to know how good they are unless you have other bids to compare it to? This is part of the reason why I made Farmbucks! Find out if the “special” is actually above current competitive bids. Don't get tricked into making last-minute decisions without having some understanding of where markets are or where they are headed.
I hope you had made a few sales in these past couple weeks while markets were hot because the retracement has come. Markets have seen a lot of red this week especially on Wednesday when spec funds ran for the door. The U.S. election is near and COVID lockdowns are occurring in France and Germany. Feed grains remain strong as China continues to replenish inventories and securing product.
Soybean: As mentioned, it is heavily reliant on the South American crop. They have seen additional rain recently which has pushed off some early season worries but important crop developments will depend on the weather they get late this year and early into the new year.
Corn: The top may have been last week as markets reverse lower this week.
Canola: Wild downward action on charts Wednesday. This market has been losing steam all week with spec funds exiting and lack of new bullish news. Still, there is justification for additional strength in the future when the market will have to act to curb consumption due to tight supplies.
Wheat: Wheat futures took a hit this week. More rain has fallen in Russia and with more coming, spec fund buyers exited. With large global supplies, do not expect huge rallies in the future. Basis levels have improved at some locations, lessening the hit to cash bids.
Barley: Strong market. Still good prices available to make a sale.
Peas: We have a very strong export pace (ahead of last year's by one-third—we have already moved out a good chunk of our production) and other exporting countries don't have huge supplies. This will help keep bids from falling in the coming months.
Flax: Stronger! Seeing $18 bids.
Around the farm: I moved some CWRS wheat to the elevator and my manure spreader got washed up before the snow fell. Today is a blizzard but by Monday we are supposed to get 10°C weather so we are saving more wash and grease jobs for then.
In the meantime, Happy Halloween!