(Spring is here or near?)
There’s just one more thing to do before you scratch the dirt – take a peek at these prices!
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Weekly Market Recap:
Big news out today about Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of cooking oil, banning all of its palm oil exports starting next Thursday, April 28. Global vegetable oil supplies are already tight so it’s no surprise to see vegetable oil markets like canola soar higher.
As per weather, I found this forecast video very interesting. It takes a look at forecast models for the U.S. and Prairies and Brazil. When you have a chance, it’s worth the 14-minute watch.
StatCan report out early next Tuesday, April 26. Trade is expecting more spring wheat acres, durum, peas, oats and lower canola and barley acres.
Deals of the week:
$27.70/bu old-crop canola, $24.90/bu new-crop canola (Today)
$14.15+/bu old-crop CPSR, $13.90+/bu new-crop CPSR (Monday)
$14.90+/bu old crop, $14.30+/bu new-crop CWRS (Monday)
Canola: Strong gains. Today futures soared $20/MT after Indonesia bans all of its palm oil exports. May futures even touched the $1200 mark briefly! We don't even have a crop in the ground yet. As mentioned, global vegetable oil supplies are already tight and this kind of movement is showing us how sensitive and fragile these markets will remain over this growing year.
Soybeans started the week strong on Monday on the coattails of news that China bought more U.S. beans on Good Friday. The U.S. growing weather and seeded acres will be watched closely in the coming months. Demand remains strong. There is a lot of pressure on North America to grow good crops as the carryout on soybeans and corn could be in for another tight year. Beans continue to be well supported by strength in the vegetable oil markets and with the war in Eastern Ukraine threatening nearly all of the country's sunflower oil production.
Canola is trading higher in new-crop futures. New-crop canola is now reaching for that $25/bu mark, a full $1 higher than a week ago!
Wheat: Wheat made strong gains Monday right out of the gate as fund money flew into the wheat markets due to fears of global food inflation/food security. The U.S. winter wheat crop ratings also declined. Tuesday onward wheat markets lost ground as moisture appeared in the forecast over the U.S. Eastern Plains. On Friday, Kansas and Minn. managed to recapture losses and made gains. Wheat markets are trading widely on weather right now. Wheat crops are bound to experience more weather challenges like frosts and planting delays in the coming weeks as shown in the video above. Wheat markets are unique in that global supplies are still plenty according to analysts so they may not surge like canola.
Pressuring the market is India, which has stepped in to make up for some of the export shortfalls out of Ukraine.
War continues as Putin aims to take hold of Mariupol which will connect Crimea by land to the Donbas region. Close watch will be on the other big port city in Ukraine, Odesa. Farmers are out seeding in Ukraine although there's much debate around how much will get planted, and how much production will be available to reach export markets. The longer the war drags on the more strain we will see in our global supply chains.
Barley: Barley bids gaining strength for both old- and new-crop. Acres are expected to be lower in Canada than last year. The safrinha corn crop in Brazil is facing some less than optimum growing weather (dry) and it is suggested that the already low intended corn acres in the U.S. may also experience some dry conditions this growing season. On top of this, Ukraine will not produce or be able to export what they typically produce for corn and barley. Sum this all up, means lots of support for barley and feed prices.
Corn breaks above $8 this week. The second time it does that since hitting its high of $8.26 back Aug. 21, 2012, when the drought was prevalent. We are only in April! It just goes to show you how little room there is for any weather hiccups this growing season, which hasn’t even begun.
New-crop barley bids up slightly $9.10/bu del.
Peas: Unchanged. Pea acres may be slightly lower in next weeks report. China's demand will play an important role in holding up values. High feed prices will also help support the market.
Oats: Oat futures have pulled back off the highs. Oat acres are expected to be higher in next week’s StatCan report. This could pressure the market in the short-term as we wait and see how weather affects our production. Cash bids have been quiet this week.
Around the farm: I finished hauling the majority of my grain contracts in! Yahoo! Right in time to start gearing up for spring. There’s still no big rush here yet as we have spots of snow throughout the fields and big drifts to melt away off fencelines. The past cold temperatures don’t exactly have us in a panic either. It’s clear, we won't be seeding early this year and will be delayed but I'm not worried about it at this time.
Have a great weekend and chat soon!