In the blink of an eye.
(Markets turn down hard.)
This week is dedicated to all the thrill seekers, daredevils and riverboat gamblers. Markets are not for the faint of heart and simply put: they are WILD. I am pretty certain farmers must like the challenge that each day brings. It’s not all rainbows and butterflies, especially if you have followed prices this week. Last week markets rocketed higher. This week they fell out of the sky. No two weeks are the same, but that is why we love it, isn’t it? It's why I love it, anyway ;)
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Canola: Old crop was slammed lower this week with limit down days. The spread between the July and Nov. futures also narrowed up in a hurry. Fund money was jumping ship, moving money out of the July futures and into new crop futures. Yes, there’s still a really tight old crop supply and yes, we still cannot continue to use it up at the same levels as last year because we just don’t have enough. But in just one week, July futures tumbled from its close of $1,005.90 last Friday to $871.80/MT today (that's a $3.04/bu change)! Did we just see this market top out at the high last Friday? Maybe so. One thing is for certain, continue to expect more volatility ahead.
New crop futures have been holding up much better (just slight losses from last Friday) due to the ongoing dryness concerns across Western Canada. Weather will be key to where these markets go next. Just so you know, $17.00+/bu new crop is still being offered today. Take a peek at who and where!
Wheat: Wheat markets turn lower this week as rains were forecasted in the Midwest and Northern Plains. This Wednesday’s USDA report summed up that world ending stocks are fairly flat.
The Minn. wheat futures held up fairly well considering it had a sharp rally last week (futures still lost about $0.55/bu). It's expected to continue to hold more strength than the others because this crop has the most risk/unknowns involved. Moving forward it’s all about weather, weather, weather.
The Kansas (CPSR) market took a harder fall, losing about $0.75/bu, as healthy winter wheat production numbers were released.
Barley: Can’t talk barley without talking corn. Corn also took a big tumble this week (again spec fund selling). There wasn’t anything surprising from the USDA WASDE report. Barley prices have been holding up thus far although I have noticed some bids softening.
Peas: I have also seen some weakening in bids here and there. We shall see if rain falls across the Prairies in the coming weeks to help grow these greens and yellows! These markets remain pretty firm at the moment.
Around the farm: Another crazy Friday over here as we are trying to wrap up seeding! Yes, it is early to be done around here (typically we aim to be done by May Long) but I got an early start this year because I just can’t sit still! From my knowledge, I may be the first one done in our area, but note that I was also one of the first ones to be in the field (I started April 30th).
I am now hoping it rains. Some scattered rain showers appeared yesterday, but they didn't amount to anything worth measuring. I also checked on my early seeded wheat, and some are poking out of the ground! That's encouraging! Although I did find areas where the shank placed seed too high to the surface, where the seed is sitting in dust waiting to germinate still.
Anyhow, I’ve done all I can do and now, it’s mostly out of my hands. I’ll go do a rain dance and have a drink tonight for y’all!