How high can it go?
(all eyes on canola.)
Canola: Earlier this week there was some pretty hard and widespread frost that affected large areas of the Prairies. This made nearby canola futures jump up on Tuesday, but frost wasn't the only supporting factor for the rally. Expected lower yields, a drop in our CDN dollar and news that China keeps buying up a storm of U.S. corn and soybeans also contributed. Today, the WASDE report came out and canola and soybeans rocketed up again! Nov. Futures shot up to $518.60/MT (these kinds of levels haven't been seen since July 2018).
Over the week, I found some pop-up canola specials ranging from $11.25/bu Oct., $11.63+/bu Feb. and 11.80+/bu April delivery. CHECK THEM OUT! Make sure you also receive push notifications from us! (If you don't receive push notifications from our app, the directions are provided below in pink).
Durum: Good news for durum producers. Analysts pegged ending stocks of the 2019-20 crop year just under 660,000 tonnes—the lowest in 34 years! Demand remains strong and the world needs our durum. On the flip side though, Canadian farmers are predicted to have a very large crop this year. Lucky for us, right now, we are the only ones with a surplus, and, if farmers collectively hold their durum, then buyers will have no choice but to pay more.
CWRS: In general, wheat's performance was disappointing this week as it failed to rally post-frost. There's no doubt the frost will have impacted the amount of available No. 1 and No. 2 CWRS. What's interesting is that although there's still plenty of wheat in the world, StatCan last reported Canada's ending stocks to be near the lows of the past 40 years. Let’s wait and see what they say in their Monday update. Either way, the market seems uninspired and needs a break after its recent rally.
Peas: According to StatCan, we have a smaller carryover but we are in for a record large pea crop. They also reported a large increase in the green pea acreage thus larger supplies, whereas as the yellows remain average. It has been recommended that some sales are made on green peas (as they have more downside risk).
Oats: Nothing exciting here. We have a good crop coming off fields and our ending stocks are average. Expectations are to see relatively the same prices offered throughout the year without any major spikes. In other words, it would be OK to sell if you see any kind of strength or specials coming from your buyers. (you most likely won't find much more $$ in the market later).
Around the farm: I jumped in the combine, picked my driest, most mature wheat crop to combine and it tested … drumroll please … 22.5%! I'm aiming to get it down to 20% before I run it through the dryer. So I guess I’ll try again when the sun is out.
Drying note: I spoke with one local buyer - Viterra - Star, AB - today who is offering:
Wheat: no drying charge up to 16%
- 16-17% @ $5/MT ($0.14/bu)
- 17-18% @ $10/MT ($0.27/bu)
- Shrink will apply
Canola: no drying charge up to 11%
- 11-12% @ $5/MT ($0.11/bu)
- 12-13% @ $10/MT ($0.23/bu)
- Shrink will apply